By Rachid Ennassiri
Following the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), a pivotal stocktake of collective progress on the path we are on under the Paris Agreement, the international community is now committed to the goal of tripling global renewable energy, transitioning away from fossil fuels (particularly coal), and doubling energy efficiency. Morocco stands at a crucial juncture. With a legacy of proactive climate policies and a unique geographic and cultural position bridging Africa, the Arab region, and Europe, Morocco's participation at COP28 reflects an ambition to slash emissions domestically and regionally.
Let’s delve into how Morocco is ramping up its efforts to accelerate its energy transition – noting the aforementioned energy-related aims under Paragraph 28 of the COP28 Global Stocktake.
Renewable energy deployment
Before COP28, Morocco was already accelerating its economy’s decarbonisation via renewable energy deployment. During 2023, an additional capacity of about 203 MW from renewable sources has been connected to the grid. Furthermore, Morocco’s Ministry of Energy Transition granted authorization for several new projects with a total capacity of about 1000 MW, marking the largest capacity authorised in a single year.
In the months preceding COP28 and Morocco's endorsement of the COP28 Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, the Moroccan government announced ambitious plans to significantly boost its renewable energy efforts and enhance the electrical grid, aiming to facilitate the rapid implementation of renewable projects with a projected annual addition of 1.3 GW from 2023 to 2027. Investments in renewable energies would be envisaged to rise markedly, from an annual average of $395 million to $1,4 billion during this period.
Moreover, the Ministry of Energy Transition advanced a series of legislative and regulatory reforms, leading to the adoption of Laws No. 40.19 and 82.21, to improve access to renewable energy and self-generated electricity. More work is now required but this lays the foundations for an electricity system where centralised generation is complemented by consumer-driven distributed integrated generation.
These developments align with the COP28 Global Stocktake outcome, which calls for tripling of renewable energy capacity globally.
Aiming for Net Zero
In addition, in 2023, Morocco completed the development of its comprehensive net zero strategy, a first of its kind in the African continent, providing a detailed quantified roadmap for the country's sustainable, equitable, and resilient development. This strategy outlines medium and long-term milestones, along with national and sector-specific decarbonization trajectories. To achieve this, Morocco has established a carbon neutrality pathway by 2050. This includes seven sectoral decarbonization plans covering energy, buildings, industry, transport, agriculture, forestry, and waste management. These plans set quantified medium and long-term goals aligned with the net-zero objective by 2050.
Following this, the country is evaluating the macroeconomic implications of various decarbonization scenarios and proposed operationalization measures in institutional, legislative, and regulatory reform. This operationalization is crucial for the successful implementation of the sectoral decarbonization action plans and achieving the national overall Net Zero goal by 2050.
Transitioning away from fossil fuels
Morocco has made a significant commitment to the global climate cause with efforts to transition away from fossil fuels over the last three COPs, at COP26 committing to No New Coal and at COP28 joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA). In her speech presenting Morocco's net zero strategy at COP28, Minister Dr. Leila Benali shared: “I am pleased to announce that Morocco adhered to Powering Past Coal Alliance and we will be working with the alliance and our partners on the financial and technical levers to phase out coal”.
These moves align with the country’s ambitions. Under the PPCA, Morocco joins 60 other national governments in a unified effort to eliminate coal-fired power generation.
In the new net-zero strategy, the country's plan for phasing out coal outlines a gradual reduction in coal-based electricity production starting from 2030, with a phase out expected by 2040. In this scenario, the existing coal plants will be decommissioned by the end of their contractual service life in the 2040s, shifting from a current dependency of over 65% on coal in 2022 to a complete halt by 2050.
8 proposals for further measures to support Morocco’s transition
As the Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, we propose the following measures to stimulate further discussions, debate, and reflections — highlighting the appropriate policies and necessary market drivers to initiate and facilitate.
An energy transition strategy should be designed in conjunction with a long-term adaptation strategy, given increasing vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change, particularly on water availability. For example, with the implementation of the coal phase-down over the next 15 years, remaining coal-fired power assets will still require large cooling needs, putting a strain on water resources affected by climate change.
An active top-down government intervention on coal phase-out could create an initial momentum, starting with the two coal plants owned by the state. The other plants are under a long-term purchasing agreement with the state-owned utility, until 2040-2048. State aid, subsidies, or international public financing would be needed to retire such plants early.
Establishing carbon pricing would be an effective ‘push factor’ to drive out carbon-intensive electricity generation from energy markets, and hence should be prioritised. Morocco’s 2023 Budget Plan includes the introduction of a carbon tax in the next few years, a strategic fiscal policy measure which is welcome.
Positive financial incentives for renewable electricity generation, especially rooftop electricity generation, can be a key ‘pull factor’ to increase the share of renewables in the power mix, decarbonizing final energy consumption and helping phase out coal. Redirecting financing for fossil fuels to new energy projects could allow the emergence of players in storage techniques, batteries, smart grids, etc.
Making energy efficiency a policy priority can also support a coal phase-down by reducing the risk of strain or disruption on the grid.
International public finance, including as part of blended finance, can help bring new funds to boost pull factors and accompany the implementation of push factors.
By combining funds to phase down coal with additional funds to invest in renewable energy, we can avoid an overreliance on other fossil fuels to keep up with electricity demand after coal is phased down.
By effectively subsidising the early retirement of coal-fired power plants, blended finance can invest in repurposing sites to avoid prolonging the life of younger coal fleets or paying a high cost to retrofit them.
Fast-tracking regional electricity interconnections could create more opportunities, redirecting financing and demand. Morocco’s vision for its development includes a focus on establishing Morocco as a regional platform for energy trade. Morocco has established a clear political ambition to become a regional leader in clean electricity by partnering with Southern European and nearby African countries. The increasing demand for such electricity in the region could boost renewable generation and accelerate fossil phase-down..
Specifically, a connection of the Moroccan electricity grid to West African countries (interconnection of West African electricity systems “from Morocco to Nigeria”) as part of an enhanced West African Power Pool (WAPP) could be of great strategic significance and capitalise on Morocco’s leadership in the development of renewable generation.
Enhanced connections with Europe on the Iberian peninsula could help support expanded renewable energy penetration and tripling capacities in the wider Mediterranean.
Designing a strategy for Just Energy Transition would help alleviate the socio-economic impacts of the transition away from fossil fuels and better harness the job creation benefits of renewable energies.
For the re-employment and re-skilling of existing workforces in regards coal, in the absence of coal mines, the issue is localised around coal-fired generation plants. One question is the retrofit of plants and repurposing options, which should be designed to offer new opportunities for workers and local communities.
Of course, the transition away from fossil fuels, beyond coal, will also present other challenges for the Moroccan workforce, but there is an enormous new job market to be created in the space of renewable energy, notably distributed solar installation and maintenance with integrated systems, which demands greater attention from policymakers.